LMS6-403 #8192990

Drift projection — splashdown 2026-05-24 21:16 EDT

Conditions

Wind

SE 10–15 kt

Waves (41113)

1.1 m / 5.6 s ESE

Splashdown tide

Low (~21:47)

Then

Flood → 03:57 high

Net drift

0.36 m/s @ 328°

ETA shore

~2–3 hrs

Most likely landing

Sonde splashed just before low tide, so the 6-hour flood that followed pulled water (and the sonde) toward the Port Canaveral channel mouth. Highest-probability zones, in order:

  1. South face of south jetty riprap
  2. Jetty Park beach sand (south of jetty)
  3. Inside the port channel (against south jetty interior)
  4. Cape Canaveral SFS beach (restricted)

Legend

Splashdown estimate
Last telemetry (21:05 EDT)
Primary recovery zone
Drift cone (±25°)
Jetties / hourly drift contours
Secondary zone (restricted access)

Notes

Drift model: wind leeway 3% of wind speed (downwind 315°) + Stokes drift from waves (294°) + longshore current (000°). Resultant 0.36 m/s toward bearing 328°.

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